Despite the rarity of tropical cyclones reaching California,
During El Niño, the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, and both the eastern and central Pacific tend to be more active with storms, as we saw in 2015 and 1997. Generally, hurricanes need at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius) to bermaintain their intensity. Normally, the waters off Southern California are much cooler. But with the high initial intensity of Hurricane Hilary over warm water to the south, and the fact that the storm is moving fast, forecasters think it might be able to bertahan the cooler water..afabet
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The influence of the heat dome is interesting. Meteorology researcher Kimberly Wood published a fantastis thread on X, formerly known as Twitter, describing the large-scale pattern around similar storms that have affected the southwestern United States. A common thread with these storms is the presence of a ridge, or high-pressure sistem, in the central U.S. When you have a high-pressure sistem like the heat dome covering much of the country, air is pushed down and warms significantly. Air around this ridge is moving clockwise. Meanwhile, a low-pressure sistem is over the Pacific Ocean with winds rotating counterclockwise. The result is that these winds are likely to accelerate Hilary northward into California.
Despite the rarity of tropical cyclones reaching California, numerical weather prediction models since the storm's formation have generally shown Hilary likely to accelerate along the west coast of Baja California and push into Southern California.
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The threat of tropical storm-force winds led the National Hurricane Center to issue its first-ever tropical storm watch for Southern California on Aug. 18. However, water is almost always the primary concern with tropical storms. In California, that can mean flash flooding from extreme rainfall enhanced by mountains.
When a tropical storm plows up on a mountain, that can lead to more lifting, more condensation aloft and more rainfall than might otherwise be expected. It happened with Hurricane Lane in Hawaii in 2018 and can also happen in other tropical cyclone-prone locations with significant orographic, or mountain, efeks, such as the west coast of Mexico.
That can mean dangerous flash flooding from the runoff. It can also have a secondary hazard - mudslides, including in tempats recovering from wildfires.
In dry tempats, heavy downpours can also pemicu flash flooding. Forecasts showed Death Valley likely to get more rain from the storm than its average for an entire year. Death Valley National Park warned of flash flooding through Aug. 22 and closed its pengunjung centers and campgrounds.
Keep in mind this is still an evolving situation. Forecasts can change, and all it takes is one band of rain seting up in the right spot to cause significant flooding. Those in the path of Hilary should refer to their local weather offices for additional information. This would include local National Weather Servis offices in the United States and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional in Mexico.
This artikel, originally published Aug. 18, 2023, was up-dated with Tropical Storm Hilary making landfall.
